A businessman walks past a share prices board in Tokyo yesterday showing a drop in the markets following the first full day of trading after the deadly March 11 earthquake and tsunami. Tokyo shares plunged almost six percent by the afternoon as investors reacted to the biggest earthquake in Japan's history, a devastating tsunami and an unfolding nuclear emergency.Photo: AFPReuters, Tokyo
Japan's central bank on Monday rushed to bolster markets in the wake of the country's worst disaster since World War Two and although the authorities said it was too early to put a figure on the damage, critics said a stronger initial response had been needed.
Markets swooned at the shock of an 8.9 magnitude earthquake and a tsunami that may have killed more than 10,000 and has left millions of people without power, water or homes. The Nikkei average closed 6.18 percent lower on Monday.
At the same time, engineers were battling to prevent a nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi complex owned by Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), where three reactors threatened to overheat in the worst atomic power accident since Chernobyl in 1986.
Investment bank Credit Suisse put economic losses from the quake at no less than $171 billion, although Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said it was too early to put together a firm figure to compile a supplementary budget.
Japan's central bank doubled its asset buying scheme to 10 trillion yen ($122 billion) and held interest rates at 0-0.1 percent after it earlier said it would pump a record 15 trillion yen ($182 billion) into the banking system, though some economists said it could have done more.
A swathe of high profile Japanese manufacturers, including Sony Corp, Toyota Motor Co and Panasonic have shuttered production lines, with restart efforts hampered by quake aftershocks.
About a fifth of the country's nuclear power generation capacity has been shut down by the disaster. Thermal plants also shut down, forcing the world's third-biggest economy to instigate rolling blackouts to conserve energy.
"The tremors will likely continue for one to two months, experts say, and are continuing now, so there's an immense amount of uncertainty and unclear points." said Masayuki Kubota, a senior fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments.
Economists said that the triple blow of quake, tsunami and nuclear accident is set to damage the already struggling economy harder and longer that initially expected.
Analysts have grown increasingly cautious about forecasting a quick economic rebound similar to that after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, thanks in part to Japan's indebtedness which at twice the size of gross domestic product means the government has less room for maneuver. Some say a recession is possible.
"Power supply is a critical factor," said Michala Marcussen, head of global economics at Societe Generale. "If power production output is damaged in a sustainable fashion, that could have a durable impact on the economy.
TEPCO, the biggest power company in Japan, said on Sunday rolling blackouts would affect 3 million customers, including large factories and buildings from Monday onwards. It aims to end the blackouts by the end of April.
Policymakers face a monumental task reviving the economy, not only because of the scale of the disaster but because of their limited options.
After the Kobe earthquake, the government adopted an extra budget worth around 3 trillion yen.
"This time, the government can't afford to spend as much as after the 1995 quake given Japan's dire fiscal situation," said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Societe General in Tokyo, who reckons a more realistic figure to expect is 1 trillion yen.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) had little room to move on rates, thanks to the legacy of the global financial crisis and years of economic stagnation, in stark contrast to New Zealand, where the central bank last week slashed interest rates by half a percentage point to 2.5 percent to support an economy hit by a 6.3 magnitude earthquake on February 22.
"My initial impression is that the BOJ could have done more. Its traditionally reserved stance on policy easing remains in place even after the massive earthquake," said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan Securities Japan.
"The BOJ also kept its economic assessment unchanged. The bank thus seems to be not fully taking account of strong uncertainty shrouding Japan."
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