The Euro made a steady yet decisive move across an important barrier, amid hopes. The upcoming week is quite busy. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now in higher ground.
On Friday, EUR/USD even approached the next resistance line, after clearing the all important 1.3440. Is this rise justified?
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
EUR USD Chart January 24-28
EUR USD Chart January 24-28 - Click to enlarge
1. Flash PMI: Monday morning – begins at 8:00 in France, continues at 8:30 in Germany and ends with the all-European figures at 9:00. This busy schedule always provides high volatility. All the figures are above 50 points, meaning economic growth, and they are all expected to remain above this level, although there are a few differences to note – French manufacturing is expected to slow to 56.8 points, while services to rise to 55.2. In Germany, another improvement is predicted in the already strong manufacturing – from 60.7 to 51.1. For the whole continent small changes are expected, and they are likely to leave the manufacturing sector at a stronger growth (57.2) than services (54.2).
2. Industrial New Orders: Monday, 10:00. The total volume of orders stabilized last month with a rise of 1.4%. The previous months saw sharper moves. A stronger rise of 2.3% moves is likely now.
3. German Gfk Consumer Climate: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany’s consumers are gradually becoming more confident – the index is on the rise, but there are bumps. The survey of 2000 consumers is due to rise from 5.4 to 5.5 points.4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 7:45. Europe’s second largest economy enjoyed a significant rise in spending last month – 2.8%. Now, a modest 0.4% figure is expected.
5. German CPI: Thursday. After witnessing a sharp rise of 1% in pries last month, a correction is expected now with a fall of 0.4%. As food inflation is seen in many parts of the globe, a smaller drop or even a small rise won’t be a big surprise. Note that the different German states release the figures during the day, and the final figure is known only late in the day.
6. M3 Money Supply: Friday, 9:00. After a few months of squeezes, the amount of money in circulation is growing, and at a faster pace. Following last month’s 1.9% rise, a 2.1% rise is expected now.
* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/Dollar was struggling under the all-important 1.3440 line (mentioned last week) before breaking above it. While there was a lot of hesitation in this break, the Euro managed to climb further and close at 1.3620, above another line.
Looking down, 1.3573 provides very minor support. It served as such back in November and was broken rather easily now. The next line remains important – 1.3440, which was a very stubborn peak in the past three months now returns to be a line of resistance.
Below, 1.3334, which was a peak during the summer, is a minor cushion below. 1.3267 is the next minor line after holding the pair several times in the past.
More important support is found at 1.3180, which provided support during December. It’s followed by 1.3080, that prevented a full during the same period of time.
Below, 1.2970 was the bottom reached in November and is the next line. The last line for now is 1.2870, which is th lowest level in 5 month, reached only two weeks ago, before the impressive recovery. There are more lines further below, but they’re too far now.
Looking up, the initial hurdle is 1.37. This was a stubborn support line during October, and now switched to resistance. Above, 1.3786, which was a peak in November, is a minor line now.
Further above, 1.3786 is also minor support, after working as support when the Euro was at higher ground. 1.3950 is already a more important line, after serving as a pivotal line.
Higher, 1.4030, just above the round number of 1.40, worked in both directions during September and October, and also earlier in 2010. It’s a tough line. Above, the peak of 1.4160 is another minor line before 1.4280 that is the highest level in a year.
Note that the downtrend channel has been broken.
I am neutral on EUR/USD.
The break above 1.3440 is a very important bullish sign. The pledges by China, Japan and even Russia to support the Euro-zone’s troubled countries and the creative ways to deal with bank debt balance the real problems that these countries have, and will face soon when they need to pay back their debt. I believe we’ll see some stabilization after this breakout.
Here are some recommended reads about EUR/USD:
* James Chen analyzes the breakout and marks the next levels for the pair.
* Andriy Miraru provides weekly technical lines and for EUR/USD and for other pairs as well.
* Mohammed Isah discusses the extended upside gains.
* Kathy Lien discusses the Euro and other currencies on BNN (video).
* TheGeekKnows writes a review of the past week looks forward.
Further reading:
* For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
* For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
* For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
* For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
* For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
* For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
* For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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